The column that crashed Zogby’s site

Released: May 09, 2004

The Election Is Kerry’s To Lose
By John Zogby

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I
haven’t had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my
jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry’s performance of
late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense
of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them.
Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn’t, it will be
because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an
incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race,
and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader.
Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction
and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected – compared
with 51% who say it is time for someone new.

In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for
Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he
won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign.
Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an
incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a
judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters – 30% cite it. While the
war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to
20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda.
The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy,
Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq,
Kerry’s lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30%
margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism.
These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and
growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.

The President’s problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at
the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is
improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions
and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of
dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity
and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining
of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in
the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 – yet
voters gave the President’s father only 38% of the vote because it was all
about “the economy, stupid.”

The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave
by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer
power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and
its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see
how the President grabs control of this situation.

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something
happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not
happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over
Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the
2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry’s campaign lacked a
focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and
too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is
often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign,
if a candidate can’t spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble
grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa
and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found
Governor Howard Dean’s message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another
look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: “I’m a veteran”,
“I have the experience”, and “I can win”. His timing caused him to come
on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told
a television correspondent in Iowa: “John always knows when his homework is
due.”

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his
supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the
hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the
President’s side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so
polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and
anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry’s to
lose.