As it was in 2004, the election is going to come down to the state of Ohio. Take a look at this speculative electoral college results map and I will explain below it.
This is a map of what Romney has to do to win the Presidency if Obama wins Ohio. He has to win in every single one of these swing states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Every single one of these dominoes has to fall his way, and also he has to win the congressional district of Omaha, Nebraska, which earns one electoral vote. This causes a 269 to 269 tie, and then the election is thrown into the US House of Representatives, where the outgoing lame-duck Republicans would vote to make him President over the objections of the majority of American voters. If under this same scenario Obama wins Omaha, Nebraska, he’s President.
If Obama loses in Ohio, he still has several different plausible combinations to win, and even if he also lost Florida. He currently leads, in polls taken after the first debate ended, in most of the states listed at the top before the map is shown, including Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. On election night, if Obama wins Florida, it’s over. If Obama wins Ohio (regardless of who wins Florida), then it’s over.
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